but slow to adjust downward (~6 cents for every $10 decline)
- 4-week window (short-run pass-through). Borenstein, Cameron & Gilbert (1997, QJE) establish the 4-week horizon as the standard for measuring asymmetric retail-fuel price adjustment — long enough to capture a full pricing cycle, short enough to isolate behavioural response from seasonal and demand-side noise. Confirmed in the ECB's cross-country replication (Gelos & Ustyugova, 2017) and in Aucremanne & Dhyne (2005) for euro-area retail prices.
- 1-week lag on Brent. EC prices are collected on Mondays and reflect purchasing decisions from the prior week. A 1-week lag aligns the crude signal with the actual procurement window, as recommended by Granger & Lee (1989, Oxford Bulletin of Econ & Stats) for error-correction models with weekly data, and applied in Bacon (1991, Oxford Energy Studies) to EU petrol markets.
- Why not 26W? Longer windows accumulate multiple Brent cycles; the growing gap above reflects compounded short-run asymmetry, not a stronger behavioural effect. With fewer independent observations and greater exposure to structural breaks (COVID, Ukraine), the 26W slope is less reliable for identifying pricing behaviour (cf. Peltzman 2000, Journal of Political Economy).
Fuel Forecast: should you refuel now or wait a week?
Crude moves first, pump prices follow with a lag of about a week. This tool tracks that lag across Europe and turns the latest Brent move into one practical signal: fill up now, or wait.
Official EU pump prices, weekly. Brent futures, daily.
About this site
My name is Seb and I live in Portugal. When the Iran war started on a Saturday, gasoline was at €1.50 and I drove straight to the station ⛽, expecting a queue. There was none. I filled up alone.
Over the following days Brent jumped from $70 to almost $140 📈 and pump prices from €1.60 to €2.30. Stations take a few days to catch up with crude, and as a driver that lag is your opportunity 💡.
This website is as simple as that: how much do you save on a full tank if you fill up this Friday instead of waiting until Tuesday next week ❓
We give you the answer.
What we watch
- What drivers pay for diesel and SP95 across Europe each week.
- How Brent crude moves from one day to the next.
- How prices, taxes and fuel habits differ between countries.
- Fresh Brent prices whenever the dashboard updates.
How to use the signal
If Brent jumps, filling up now could help you get ahead of the next pump-price rise. If Brent falls, waiting a week could save you money. If very little has changed, there is no rush either way.
Think of it as a helpful heads-up, not a promise. Your local price can still move differently.
Fuel Price Questions
Will fuel prices go up next week?
The current Diesel signal is NO RUSH because pump prices are expected to stay broadly flat next week. Fuel Forecast recomputes the signal each week from the latest available Brent move.
How do rising oil prices affect pump prices?
Crude oil moves first, then petrol and diesel prices adjust as stations restock. In the EU weekly data, the pass through appears with roughly a one week lag.
How much does a $10 Brent move change pump prices?
The site’s Diesel estimates are about 9 cents/L when Brent rises and about 6 cents/L when Brent falls. This difference is known as asymmetric pass through.
How much can I save by timing a fill up?
In normal weeks, timing a 50L fill up may save a few euros. The difference can be larger after a major crude move such as the 2026 spike.
Where does the data come from?
Pump prices come from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin. Brent futures data comes from Investing.com.
Is this a price prediction?
No. It is an indicative signal from a simple pass through model, and local prices can differ.